Welcome to the April 19th edition of Sent Items.

Next weekend, Katie and I are heading out to Southall for a quick relaxation and strategy retreat (afterall, in 6 weeks I’ll be entering my quadragenarian decade 😲). As part of this we are doing a “digital detox” - leaving behind phones and computers for 3 days.

When I get back, it's full steam ahead for Home Delivery World right here in Nashville and SubSummit in Kansas City. I've got invites and links below for the dinners and happy hours we are hosting at both. Heck, you don’t even need to be attending the events to join us!

Meanwhile, the macro landscape continues to squeeze margins. FedEx and UPS are hiking fuel surcharges, the $130B tariff refund portal opens on Monday (with massive unknowns), and UPS is completely overhauling how packages get scanned.

But before we get into it, TIL that Temu says steaks, that you can have delivered in a day (no, this is not AI …. h/t Juozas Kaziukėnas).

Let’s get into it.

- Matt

The Squeeze: FedEx & UPS Hike Fuel Surcharges Just when you thought you had your Q2 margins modeled, the carriers are moving the goalposts. Supply Chain Dive reports that both FedEx and UPS have aggressively adjusted their fuel surcharge indices, driving up delivery costs across the board. Combined with the 3.5% surcharge Amazon slapped on FBA sellers earlier this month, the cost to move a box is creeping up just as consumer demand starts to soften. Source: Supply Chain Dive

Tariff Refunds: What We Know (And Don't Know) On Monday, April 20, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will officially open Phase 1 of the CAPE portal for companies to claim their share of the $130 billion in unconstitutionally paid IEEPA tariffs. However, the WSJ Logistics Report breaks down the massive unknowns still lingering over the process. While the portal provides a submission pathway, there is zero clarity on processing timelines, how interest payments will be calculated, or when the Treasury will actually cut the checks. Source: WSJ

UPS Seeks to Replace Manual Scans The iconic "beep" of the barcode scanner might be fading away. According to the WSJ, UPS is investing heavily in tracking tech—including smart RFID and advanced computer vision—to replace manual scanning in its warehouses and on delivery routes. The goal is twofold: eliminate the human error that leads to mis-loads and shave precious seconds off every package touch point. Source: WSJ

Allbirds Bets Big on AI In a bid to turn its stock around, footwear brand Allbirds announced a major pivot this week heavily anchored in Artificial Intelligence. The company is actively integrating AI into its supply chain forecasting, inventory management, and even its design processes to lean out operations and speed up time-to-market. It’s a high-stakes gamble to prove that intelligent logistics can save a struggling retail darling. But I ask: which retailers are not using AI to do all of the above. This is much more a “pump and dump” scheme than intelligent logistics. Source: CNBC

The Drewry World Container Index slipped 3% to $2,246 per FEU this week, ending a six-week rally triggered by Middle East conflicts and rising oil prices. Spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles and New York also decreased 3%. This brief cooldown is likely a mirage. Carriers have already announced 9 blank sailings on the Transpacific route next week to artificially tighten capacity. More importantly, brace yourself for May 1 -multiple carriers are rolling out Peak Season Surcharges of around $2,000 per container. Combined with the US-led naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz turning ships back and spiking oil prices, shippers should prepare for reduced schedule reliability, longer lead times, and renewed upward pressure on rates. Source: [Drewry]

📦 The "Poor Packing" Chronicles Speed to doorstep means absolutely nothing if the unboxing experience looks like it went through a blender. This week on LinkedIn, I shared two brutal examples of terrible packing jobs that cost these brands the customer relationship. From oversized boxes with zero dunnage to crushed product packaging, it’s a masterclass in what not to do. Check out the teardowns:

👉 Packing Fail #1

👉 Packing Fail #2

🚨 DEADLINE APPROACHING: The September Retreat This is it. Applications for our Fall Logistics & Leadership Retreat (Sept 28-30 in Nashville) officially close next Friday, April 24. We only have 2 spots remaining. If you are an operator looking to connect with the best in the business without the pitch decks, apply right now.

SubSummit (Kansas City | May 13-15) I am getting ready to head to KC for SubSummit, the premier event for subscription brands. I will be hosting an exclusive VIP dinner for brands and operators in attendance.

👉 RSVP for the SubSummit Dinner Here (Wednesday, May 13 @ The Stilwell)

Home Delivery World VIP Dinner (Nashville) HDW is coming to our backyard this May, and Third Person will be front and center with our own booth on the floor. We are also hosting a Happy Hour and private dinner throughout the week. Both invites are below.

👉 RSVP for the HDW Dinner Here (Wednesday, May 20 @ Bourbon Steak)

👉 RSVP for the HDW Happy Hour Here (Thursday, May 21 @ Bricktop’s)

🏙️ SubSummit (Kansas City | May 13-15) I’m heading to KC in May for SubSummit, the biggest and most valuable event for subscription brands. I have an exclusive promo code coming for brands who want to attend. Comped tickets for brands (incl travel stipend). Reach out for an intro.

🚚 Home Delivery World (Nashville | May 20-21) HDW is coming to our backyard! Third Person will once again have a booth in the Startup Zone on the floor. We are also hosting a dinner and happy hour throughout the week. If you are coming to Nashville for the show, let me know so we can get you on the list.

Have a great week!

- Matt

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