Sent Items #227: The $166B Unclaimed Bounty, UPS Pivots & Retreat Week!

Welcome to the March 14th edition of Sent Items.

We are just hours away from kicking off the Third Person Logistics & Leadership Retreat here in Nashville (March 16-18). The team has been working around the clock, and I cannot wait to welcome those of you who are attending.

A month ago I had not heard of a Hulken bag, but now I have 45 of them fully loaded with other merch, and co-branded with Third Person and Jay Group sitting in our dining room. (and you gotta love their motto: “Made for Schlepping”

While we prep the welcome bags, the industry is witnessing one of the most baffling financial scrambles in recent memory. Despite the government finally making progress on a mechanism to return illegally collected tariffs, companies are leaving literally billions of dollars on the table. Add in a major strategic pivot from UPS and a massive resurgence in big-box warehouse demand, and it’s clear the market is recalibrating fast.

Let’s get into it.

— Matt

The $166B Tariff Bounty: "People Hate Money" After weeks of chaos following the Supreme Court's ruling to strike down the IEEPA tariffs, Supply Chain Dive reports that Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is finally making progress on establishing the refund mechanisms. But the real story is how few brands are actually taking action. Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen pointed out on LinkedIn this week that the government says only 6% of eligible companies have registered their payment details to receive tariff refunds. With $166B in refunds at stake, Petersen summed it up perfectly: "People hate money." Call your customs broker immediately and get registered. Source: Supply Chain Dive 

FYI, encourage you to reach out to Caspian and Passport, both leaders in global trade. They can help you get back what you are owed. Hit reply if you want an intro to their CEOs.

UPS Shifts Strategy on Amazon Volume The relationship between the Big Two and the Everything Store continues to evolve. UPS is adjusting its e-commerce strategy, actively managing down its reliance on Amazon's massive (but lower-margin) volume to focus on highly profitable SMB and healthcare shipments. As UPS focuses on yield over sheer volume, mid-market brands might find more favorable negotiating conditions if their freight profile fits what the carrier is currently prioritizing. Source: Supply Chain Dive

Big Boxes are Back in Demand The mega-warehouse is experiencing a renaissance. The WSJ Logistics Report highlights that demand for massive distribution centers (1 million+ square feet) has surged back. After a period of sublease gluts and capacity rationalization, major retailers and 3PLs are once again snapping up the biggest boxes on the market to consolidate operations and drive down per-unit handling costs.

Companies signed 146 leases across the U.S. for warehouses over 500,000 square feet last year, up more than 31% from the previous year to the highest level since 2022, according to real-estate firm Cushman & Wakefield. Forty-two of those agreements were signed in the fourth quarter, the most activity in a quarter since the third quarter of 2022, according to Cushman. Source: WSJ

The Death of Fast & Free? Is the golden era of guaranteed 2-day free shipping over for everyone not named Amazon? The WSJ reports that a growing number of retailers are dialing back their "fast and free" shipping promises, squeezed by the rising operational costs of FedEx, UPS, and internal fulfillment. Brands are increasingly gatekeeping fast shipping behind loyalty programs or higher minimum order values to protect their margins. Source: WSJ

Note: This data/survey is from 2024…I wonder how things have evolved even further over the last two years.

Third Person Updates & Events

Two-Year Anniversary Promo for 3PLs We are still celebrating Third Person’s second anniversary! If you are a 3PL operator looking to join the ecosystem, we are offering 30% off our monthly rate when you commit to an annual plan.

This Week: The March Retreat (Nashville) To everyone flying into Nashville this weekend for the retreat (Mon-Wed): Safe travels. Get ready for zero pitch decks, incredible food and local experiences, and intentional operator conversations.

Applications Open: The September Retreat (Sept 28-30) Our second Logistics and Leadership Retreat is coming up next month in Nashville, and it is going to be amazing. But we all know each iteration gets even better, which is why we have officially opened applications for our September Retreat (Sept 28-30)! If you are an operator looking to connect with the best in the business, apply now. This is a completely free trip for brands, including a 2-night stay at the Soho House. (Note: We also have a few select sponsorship opportunities open for September - reach out if interested).

Miami VIP Dinner (March 31) We are taking the show on the road again! Following the massive success of our Austin dinner, we will be hosting our next VIP Operator's Dinner in Miami on March 31. We only have a couple spots remaining, so request your spot before it fills up. 👉 RSVP / Request a Spot Here

🏙️ SubSummit (Kansas City | May 13-15) I’m heading to KC in May for SubSummit, the biggest event for subscription brands. I have a great deal for brands who want to attend (note: it’s free + you get travel stipend). For vendors/suppliers, I can get you a deal as well. This is one of the highest-value events of the year for DTC operators.

📺 Matt's Chats: Coming Next Week Matt's Chats is recording live next week - Wednesday, March 18 @ 11 am EST CST - at the end of our Retreat. We will be doing a full debrief on the biggest takeaways and behind-closed-doors insights from the Nashville retreat, as well as why relationships still win in e-commerce & logistics. Joining me will be Caleb Nelson (Founder & CEO of DiversiFi.ai), Wally Shaw (CEO of Red Stag Fulfillment), and Luke Whiteman (VP of Solutions at DOSS). 👉 Register here

Have a great week!

- Matt

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