Sent Items #221: TikTok's Ultimatum, Amazon Kills Physical Retail & Rates Drop

Welcome to the Feb 1 edition of Sent Items.

I’ve decided to pivot into the DTC Generator space. After analyzing recent market signals (looking outside), I've confirmed immediate product market fit. The TAM is currently 100% within 200 miles in any direction, and the CAC is zero. Who wants to invest? All kidding aside, Nashville has gotten hit hard this past week, having endured a once in a generation storm with many still out of power. Despite being Canadian, I’m learning that a foot of snow has nothing on an inch of ice.

Onto the news, we are seeing a massive correction in retail strategy (Amazon is shutting down all Go/Fresh stores), a correction in the 3PL market (Quiet and Veyer exiting), and a correction in ocean rates (which just dropped 7% this week).

TikTok Shop is forcing sellers into its logistics network, and Trump has decided that China isn't the only target for tariffs anymore - Canada and South Korea are next on the list.

The message from the market is loud and clear: Efficiency is the only metric that matters in 2026.

Let’s get into it.

— Matt

TikTok Shop to Sellers: Use Our Logistics or Leave The biggest story of the week comes from TikTok Shop, which has announced it is discontinuing "Seller Shipping" for U.S. merchants starting February 25, 2026. Sellers must now use TikTok Shop Logistics Services (FBT) or a tightly integrated partner. This is a massive blow to independent 3PLs who are not integrated with TikTok’s specific ERP/WMS stack. As I noted on LinkedIn, this is an "ultimatum" that fundamentally changes the competitive landscape—you either integrate with their "black box" or you lose the volume. Source: PPC Land / Modern Retail

FreightWaves: American Eagle & Office Depot Pull the Plug The "Retailer 3PL" model is officially unraveling. FreightWaves covered the dual exits of Quiet Logistics (American Eagle) and Veyer (Office Depot) this week, confirming the trend we've been tracking. My Take: I spoke with FreightWaves about the reality of this pivot:

The "Big Two" Slash Headcount: Amazon & UPS The efficiency drive is hitting the giants. Amazon confirmed this week it is cutting 16,000 corporate roles across Retail and AWS to "reduce bureaucracy." Simultaneously, UPS announced plans to cut 30,000 operational jobs in 2026, driven largely by Amazon reducing its volume with the carrier. The Takeaway: When the two biggest players in the ecosystem shed 46,000 jobs in a single week, it’s a signal that the "growth at all costs" hangover is still clearing. Source: Washington Post / HR Executive

Data Check: Ocean Rates Cool Down The early January rate spike didn't hold. The latest World Container Index (Jan 29) shows a broad cooldown across major lanes as the pre-Lunar New Year rush fades.

• Composite Index: Down 5% ($2,107)

• Shanghai to NY: Down 7% ($2,969)

• Shanghai to LA: Down 4% ($2,442) If you were panicking about a "2021 repeat" earlier this month, the data says: breathe. The market is softening again.

Tariff Watch: Trump Targets Canada & South Korea The trade war is widening beyond China. The WSJ reports that President Trump is leveraging tariff threats against Canada to influence pending USMCA talks, a move Canadian officials say is designed to force concessions. Simultaneously, the administration has threatened higher duties on South Korea, rattling Asian markets. For supply chain planners, the "safe harbor" list is getting shorter by the day. Source: WSJ (Canada) / WSJ (Korea)

Report Data: Flexport Raises Minimums to $5,000 A key data point from my monthly 3PL review: Flexport has officially raised its monthly minimum fee for fulfillment customers from $500 to $5,000, effective January 1, 2026. Why it Matters: This 10x increase is a clear move to shed "long tail" SMB merchants and focus on mid-market/enterprise volume. If you are a smaller brand on their platform, your unit economics just broke. Source: Supply Chain Dive

Amazon's Massive Reset: Closing Stores & Cutting Jobs The "Just Walk Out" era is officially walking away. In a stunning retreat from physical retail, the WSJ reports that Amazon is shutting down all Amazon Go and Amazon Fresh stores. The Context: This comes the same week Amazon confirmed 16,000 corporate layoffs across Retail and AWS. The message is brutal but clear: the "omnichannel experiment" failed to yield profits, and Amazon is cutting its losses to focus purely on the core e-commerce engine. Source: WSJ

UPCOMING EVENTS: Where I'll Be

🏈 Super Bowl Party @ Manifest Vegas (Feb 9) Heading to Vegas early? Come watch the game with us. No pitch decks, just wings and bad refs. At capacity but join the Waitlist here 👉 RSVP HERE

🍸 Operators Happy Hour @ Manifest Vegas (Feb 11) I’m co-hosting a HH specifically for Brand and 3PL Operators. If you run a warehouse or manage a supply chain, this is your tribe. At capacity but join the Waitlist here 👉 RSVP HERE

🥩 Austin VIP Dinner (Feb 19) Status: SOLD OUT (Waitlist Only) We are officially at capacity for the Austin dinner. Join the waitlist to be first in line if a spot opens up. 👉 JOIN THE WAITLIST

Have a great week!

- Matt

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