Sent Items #217: Back to Reality

Welcome to the first Sent Items of 2026.

If you are reading this, you have successfully survived the holidays, the "limbo week" of what day is it, and the inevitable "New Year, New Me" LinkedIn posts.

Speaking of LinkedIn, things got a little heated over the weekend. Last week I received a Saks order that was mostly air - a perfect example of how poor pack-out jobs destroy margins via Dimensional (DIM) weight. I broke down why brands need to 'secret shop' their own 3PLs to ensure SOPs are actually being followed. I posted a pic of the order and 150,000 of you tuned in to debate it.

People are loving to chime in - feel free to join the discussion (link)

Today is Tuesday, January 6th. The OOO replies are turning off, the returns are piling up on the dock, and FedEx just raised their rates.

Cheers to 2026!

— Matt

Now onto some headlines…

FedEx Rates Jump Today (Surprise!) As of this morning (Jan 5), the FedEx 2026 General Rate Increase (GRI) is officially live. While the headline number is a "modest" 5.9%, parcel experts like Nate Skiver are already pointing out the fine print: the effective increase for many e-commerce shippers - especially those hit by the new "Delivery Area" and "Additional Handling" surcharges - is likely closer to 8-12%. If you haven't audited your first 2026 invoice yet, do it now. Source: FedEx Service Guide

WSJ: "Peak Globalization" is a 20,000-Mile Detour If your inventory feels slower than usual, blame the map. The Wall Street Journal just chronicled the journey of the CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin, which recently traveled a staggering 19,687 nautical miles over three months to avoid Red Sea conflict zones. This "Cape of Good Hope" detour is becoming the new normal, adding weeks to transit times and proving that in 2026, the shortest distance between two points is rarely a straight line. Source: WSJ

Don't Want to Return It? Hire a Proxy. The "Gig Economy" has finally solved the worst part of January: standing in line at UPS. A new crop of services (and side-hustlers on platforms like TaskRabbit) are now offering to handle your holiday returns for you. From "DoorDash for returns" to Uber's package return service, consumers are increasingly willing to pay a premium to avoid the "walk of shame" with their unwanted gifts. I, for one, am a frequent user of Uber’s Returns service. It often costs only $6 or $7 and saves 30 minutes. Sign me up! Source: WSJ

NY Times: The Tariff Bill Finally Comes Due After months of retailers absorbing costs or pulling forward inventory, the New York Times reports that the impact of the Trump administration's tariffs is finally hitting consumer price tags. The analysis, released this weekend, shows that prices for imported electronics and apparel have ticked up 4-6% in the last month alone. As "tariff mitigation" strategies run dry, 2026 is shaping up to be the year the consumer actually foots the bill for the trade war. Source: NY Times

Adobe Final Numbers: Holiday Spend Hits $222B The final scorecard is in. Adobe Analytics released its definitive Holiday 2025 report this week, showing U.S. online sales hit a record $222.1 billion (up 4.9% YoY) between Nov 1 and Dec 31. The biggest winner? Mobile. For the first time ever, mobile devices accounted for over 51% of all online revenue, cementing 2025 as the year we officially stopped opening our laptops to shop. Source: Adobe Analytics

Alert: USPS Rate Hikes Hit in 2 Weeks While FedEx rates just went live, do not sleep on the Postal Service. The USPS is set to raise rates on January 18, 2026 (less than two weeks away). USPS Ground Advantage - the darling of e-commerce shippers looking for a cheap alternative (previously generally referred to as First Class Parcel) - is getting hit with a painful 7.8% average increase. If your 2026 shipping strategy relied heavily on shifting volume to the USPS, you need to re-run your numbers immediately. Source: USPS

Crime of the Week: The Costco Lobster Heist In a story that sounds like a rejected Ocean's 11 script, thieves in Massachusetts made off with a refrigerated truck carrying $30,000 worth of live lobsters destined for Costco. Police are still looking for the suspects (and presumably, a massive vat of melted butter). It’s a funny headline, but a serious reminder that cargo theft is getting bolder - and more specific - by the day. Source: WSJ

Where I'll Be: Manifest 2026

I mentioned this last week, but it bears repeating: I will be at Manifest Vegas next month (Feb 10-12 … I’ll actually be there Super Bowl Sunday, and hosting an event…stay tuned for more info!)

If you’re planning to go, do not pay full price. Use the link below to grab $200 off your ticket: 👉 ManifestVegas.com/ThirdPerson

(Reply to this email if you're going - I’m hosting some happy hours, dinners and events and I’d love to include you.)

Happy New Year!

- Matt

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