Sent Items #216: The Limbo Edition

Welcome to the 42nd and final edition of Sent Items for 2025. We are currently deep in "The Limbo Week." You know the one we’re in now, where no one is sure what day it is, and "circling back" on an email feels like a crime against humanity.

But while most of us have been watching football and catching up on Netflix, the supply chain continues to hum along. Amazon officially broke up with Italy (sorry, drones), Holiday 2025 numbers are in (spoiler: we spent a lot of money), the EU is closing a massive tax loophole, and regional carriers just proved they aren't the "B-Team" anymore.

That’s a Wrap on 2025

I want to take a quick moment to say a massive THANK YOU to everyone who has read, opened, replied to, and shared Sent Items this year. Writing this newsletter every week (well, 42 of the 52, I suppose) is a labor of love, and I'm incredibly grateful you choose to let me into your inbox.

If you’ve enjoyed the updates this year, I have one small end-of-year ask: Please forward this email to 5 people you know, or drop the link in a Slack group of your choosing. It’s the best way to help us grow.

See you in 2026! 🥂

— Matt

Now onto some headlines…

Holiday 2025 Scoreboard: E-Commerce Saves the Day The numbers are in, and despite inflation fatigue, we all still love to shop. Mastercard SpendingPulse reports that U.S. retail sales (ex-auto) rose 3.9% YoY this holiday season. The real MVP? E-commerce, which surged 7.4%, proving that nobody actually wants to go to a mall anymore. Online spending on Black Friday alone topped $10.8 billion, while Cyber Monday smashed records at $13.3 billion. If you're looking for a winner, it was mobile commerce—phones accounted for over 55% of online sales for the first time ever. Source: Mastercard SpendingPulse

Amazon Drones: Arrivederci, Italia In a surprise reversal announced yesterday, Amazon is permanently grounding its commercial drone delivery program in Italy. Despite successful tests in the Abruzzo region earlier this month, Amazon cited a "challenging regulatory framework" and decided to pull the plug. It’s a tough break for the "Prime Air" dream in Europe, but a clear signal that even the deepest pockets can't just innovate their way through complex airspace bureaucracy. The focus now shifts back to their U.S. drone expansions in Texas and California. Source: Reuters

Final Warning: FedEx Rates Jump on Monday Consider this your final courtesy notice. While you are nursing your New Year's Eve hangover on Monday, FedEx’s 2026 General Rate Increase (GRI) goes into effect on January 5th. The average hike is 5.9%, but as we've discussed, the effective increase for many shippers (especially those hit by the new "Delivery Area" surcharges) will be closer to 8-10%. Update your rate cards now, or prepare for a nasty surprise on your first invoice of 2026. Source: Loop

Regionals Recover Fast: 97% On-Time Post-Peak If you were nervous about giving volume to regional carriers this peak, you can officially exhale. Ben Emmrich at Tusk Logistics released data this week showing that "alternative" carriers have already bounced back to pre-peak service levels. As of last week, Tusk's network hit 97% on-time delivery, with 96.6% of parcels delivered within two days. Standouts like CDL Last Mile (NYC) and Promed Delivery (West Coast) held the line, proving that a multi-carrier strategy isn't just a cost-saver—it's a reliability play. Source: Tusk Logistics

Another Loophole Closes: EU Ends Duty-Free <€150 While the US debates "de minimis," the European Union is taking action. In a major policy shift confirmed this month, shipments entering the EU valued under €150 will no longer be duty-free starting July 1, 2026. Instead, a fixed €3 customs duty will be applied to these small parcels (which currently make up 93% of e-commerce flows to the EU). This is a temporary "bridge" measure ahead of deeper customs reforms planned for 2028, effectively signaling the end of the cheap cross-border parcel era in Europe. Source: European Council

Finally, I hope to see many of you at Manifest 2026.

The "Class Reunion" of logistics is just around the corner. I will be at Manifest Vegas this February (Feb 10-12 … I’ll be there Feb 9-11), and I’d love to see you there. If you’re going, let me know - I’d love to see you and invite you to a Happy Hour I’m co-sponsoring. If you haven’t yet registered, here’s a link for an additional $400 off your ticket!

Happy New Year!

- Matt

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