Sent Items #205: Monday, September 29, 2025

What a week that was! We hosted our inaugural Logistics and Leadership Retreat last week for 45 founders and executives across e-commerce, 3PLs and supply chain. It was a huge success. Here’s the recap I shared on LinkedIn:

A few pics from the retreat:

We have already begun planning our next retreat which will be March 16-18, 2026 - applications just opened and you can apply here.

Finally, check out some of these great user generated unboxing videos of this year’s Retreat swag bag :

And here’s another:

Excited to be speaking at the Peak Season Playbook Virtual Conference by Saltbox this coming Wednesday! Join me and other experts as we share strategies to help your business crush Q4 and beyond. Register free 👉 here 

Cardboard-Box Demand Is Slumping. Why That’s Bad News for the Economy. (WSJ)

A slump in cardboard-box demand is flashing a potential warning sign about the health of the American consumer. The Wall Street Journal’s Ryan Dezember writes that a historic run of pulp-mill closures is also signaling problems for the companies that make corrugated packaging, as well as for timberland owners who sell them wood.

Box shipments have fallen from the record highs reached during the pandemic to the lowest levels since 2016. On a per-capita basis, the drop is even sharper, with box shipments per American down more than 20% from their 1999 peak, one analyst said. International Paper now forecasts a 2% decline in demand this year, after previously expecting 1% growth.

Demand is suffering from uncertainty in U.S. boardrooms and export markets from Trump’s tariffs and from weakening consumer spending. The sputtering housing market has also hurt, and e-commerce firms, including Amazon, have trimmed their cardboard consumption by shipping more items in paper and plastic mailers.

Canada Post is striking again! Canada Post operations not ‘viable,’ Carney says amid strike action (link). Mail came to a halt on Thursday evening as the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) walked off the job in response to the federal government’s proposed changes to Canada Post. They lose more than $10 million a day. Earlier this year, the federal government provided a $ 1-billion injection to the corporation to keep it operational. In the second quarter of 2025, Canada Post reported a loss of $407 million.

The government’s cost-saving suggestions, which were announced Friday include plans to adjust standards so that non-urgent mail can be transported by ground instead of air. They also recommend converting four million addresses to community mailboxes and lifting a more than 30-year-old moratorium on rural post offices, which the government referred to as a “long-standing barrier” to reform.

Is UPS between a rock and a hard place? As the carrier trims its driver and management ranks, it could suffer from heightened overtime reliance and the loss of veteran knowledge. (Supply Chain Dive) UPS is in the midst of voluntary buyout programs for full-time drivers, who are represented by the Teamsters, and select operations managers in the U.S. as it chases $3.5 billion in expense reductions this year.

The rightsizing has continued this year, even before the buyouts began. From Q1 to Q2, the number of employees covered by UPS’ national contract with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters dropped by 14,000 amid a wave of facility closures. Something else worth noting amid this UPS-Teamsters strife: As of Q2 2025, UPS had 300k U.S. employees covered by the Teamsters' national contract, the lowest since Q3 2023, when the current agreement was ratified.

But replacing decades-long employees without a hitch in service levels is hard, no matter how tech-savvy your operations are. There could be growing pains for new workers learning the intricacies of a particular route, especially as the all-important peak season nears.

According to Ryder’s latest e-commerce consumer study, nearly one-third of shoppers now expect same-day delivery (link). The study, which surveyed 1,000 U.S. online shoppers, found that 31% now consider same-day delivery standard, up sharply from prior years when two-day shipping was the gold standard. At the same time, 63% expect delivery in two days or less.

The study also revealed that consumer loyalty is increasingly fragile. Eighty-four percent of shoppers said they would switch retailers if expectations aren’t met, and 74% said a poor returns experience would stop them from buying from a brand again. Price and delivery speed remain the top drivers of loyalty. Looking ahead to the holidays, nearly half of consumers said they plan to start shopping before October, and 58% expect to spend the same or more than last year.

Full report can be viewed here (link).

Latest Polymarket odds that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump’s tariffs is at 42% - unchanged over the last week. Betting markets still suggesting there is a 58% chance that the tariff policy will be overturned. Remains surprisingly high and increasingly likely. One of the biggest questions I have is whether payments already made will be refunded, or will this only be forward looking?

Thanks for reading! Have a great week! And remember to apply here to be at our next retreat March 16-18, 2026.

- Matt

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