Sent Items #202: Tuesday, September 9, 2025

The logistics world is in descending upon Chicago (ahem, Schaumburg, a suburb) this week for Parcel Forum. While I don’t regret not being there, I do have FOMO not seeing many industry friends of mine. I guess that’s what Manifest is for… see ya in February (and many of you at Third Person’s inaugural Logistics and Leadership Retreat … more on that below)!

Excited for tomorrow’s monthly “MATT’S CHATS” webinar series at 12 PM EST. Another all star cast with Kyle Thompson (Co-Founder, Encore Fulfillment), Dipti Desai (CEO & Co-Founder, Crstl), and Sean Agatep (Co-Founder & COO, Vincero Collective). We’ll be diving into some of the biggest headlines in e-commerce and logistics, including how modern brands build seamless operations.

Register here: https://events.zoom.us/ev/AniPxeyZA1FJrAtsShLDurCCXc922w6a-LaTdShzOuYdKjZMjGSi~AiAJcClsNIVYts3Arnr9tS5dl8uWiOHcZfzQVzhstmVVemzrRjQTkk_VkQ

A couple more PSAs:

For the month of September, we are upping the bounty for Third Person's Referral Program! Apply for the referral program here (link) and start earning rewards⚡

The details:
💵Earn rewards: $75* every time a brand connects with a 3PL on Third Person

📈No cap on rewards: The more successful referrals, the more you earn

💥Signing bonus: $200* if a brand you referred signs with a 3PL

*only valid Sept. 1-30

Our inaugural Logistics & Leadership Retreat is coming up in less than 2 weeks. Third Person brings together just 50 founders and executives across brands, 3PLs, and logistics tech companies. It's neither a conference nor a trade show—it’s an immersive, high-caliber experience built around deep relationship-building, not superficial networking. It is an opportunity to connect meaningfully and shape the future of e-commerce logistics through peer engagement.

Our inaugural event sold out within a week. Check out some of the fantastic brands who are coming to Nashville later this month for our inaugural event.

We have already begun planning our March 2026 Retreat and will soon be opening it to applications. Click here to sign up to be notified when applications are open in the next few days! While we will continue limiting the event to only 50 participants, we are preparing a sponsorship kit for a few select companies - please reach out by replying here or emailing [email protected] if you are interested in exploring sponsorship.

Onto some headlines….

Those who know me know that I’m a betting man 🤑 I’ve been following Polymarket’s line on whether the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump’s tariffs (link). Polymarket has been very accurate with bets (including the 2024 US Election) and as of last night the betting line was sitting at a 44% chance. Late last week it was closer to 60%. TLDR: prediction markets are suggesting a greater than 56% chance that tariffs will be overturned.

Recall, it was only a few weeks ago we learned that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald is buying the right to businesses tariff refunds, basically betting that the courts will overturn the tariffs (article here). Coincidence?

Delaying a ruling until the end of the Supreme Court’s next term in June 2026 could result in a scenario in which $750 billion-$1 trillion in tariffs have already been collected, and unwinding them could cause significant disruption — according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

The courts are weighing the legality of 10% baseline tariffs the Trump administration imposed this year on most trading partners, as well as steeper tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada. The federal appeals court found, by a 7-4 vote, that the president overstepped his authority by invoking emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to implement the levies.

Meanwhile, new tariff rules bring 'maximum chaos' as surprise charges hit consumers (NBC News). This NBC News article reports on the chaos created by new tariff rules that ended the "de minimis" exemption on August 29, 2025. For the first time in nearly a century, items under $800 coming into the U.S. now face import duties and tariffs. This has led to U.S. consumers receiving shocking surprise bills from shipping carriers like UPS, DHL, and FedEx - sometimes costing more than the original item, such as a $1,400 tariff on a $750 computer part from Germany or a $620 charge on a $300 aluminum case from Sweden.

The impact has been widespread disruption, with many customers refusing shipments to avoid the unexpected costs and postal traffic to the U.S. dropping by about 80% as countries halt shipments. Both consumers and small businesses are struggling - foreign merchants are suspending U.S. shipments while U.S. small business owners worry the unexpected tariff costs could force them to close. While the Trump administration justifies the change as necessary to stop illicit drug packages and generate revenue, the situation is being described as "maximum chaos" as all parties navigate this new reality for international orders.

Meanwhile, ocean shipping rates from China to the U.S. West Coast have fallen 68% from their June high. Meanwhile, ocean shipping rates from China to the U.S. West Coast have fallen 68% from their June high. The rate slide signals that some U.S. retailers and manufacturers are taking a cautious approach to new orders ahead of the year’s busy fall and winter shopping periods. Tariff uncertainties, shifting trade policies and concerns about consumer spending are all factoring.

Worldwide, the average cost of shipping a 40-foot container has fallen for 11 consecutive weeks, to $2,119, down 40% from its mid-June high. The average short-term contract rate to ship a box from China to the U.S. West Coast on Sept. 1 was $1,802, down from a high of $5,553 in June.

Startups land collective $129 million in latest AI push into logistics (JOC). What a week for logistics-focused AI companies! Workflow automation provider Augment on Thursday landed an $85 million funding round a day after fellow vendor Happy Robot snared a $44 million investment. Taken together, the $129 million represents a huge bet by investors that AI will be used by companies in the freight and logistics industry to improve productivity.

Augment has raised $85 million in Series A funding, bringing its total capital raised to $110 million in just five months. Augment is developing ChatGPT-like AI specifically trained on logistics workflows to help streamline freight management operations and other logistics workflows. Augment was founded by Harish Abbot, the Founder of Deliverr.

HappyRobot, a supply chain automation startup, secured $44 million in Series B funding to scale its AI-powered platform. The platform deploys AI "workers" to handle repetitive tasks, significantly improving efficiency and ROI for clients. This comes just ten months after the company's $15.6 million Series A, bringing its total funding to date to $62 million.

It’s a good time to be building in logistics (👋 Third Person).

Amazon’s New Curbs on Sharing Free Shipping Are Set to Hit Millions (WSJ). People who were invited by friends or family to share in Prime shipping benefits will be cut off on Oct. 1. Amazon is ending the program, unraveling those networks of families and friends with the aim of turning sharers into full Prime members.

Prime Invitee was open from 2009 to 2015, allowing Prime members to share their free-shipping benefit with up to four adults, anywhere in the U.S., who could use it while shopping with their own accounts. When it stopped accepting new members in 2015, those already participating could continue to benefit from the free shipping.

There were about 197 million people in the U.S. using Prime as of March, including some who aren’t paying for it, according to estimates from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners. Other estimates suggest there are between 140 million and 160 million U.S. Prime members. Amazon hasn’t provided a figure.

Thanks for reading! Have a great week!

- Matt

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