Sent Items #198: Friday, August 8, 2025

I’ve sent a Sent Items only 8 times on a Friday 8 across my first 198 issues. Statistically, it should be about 28 (1 in 7). How’s that for some useless data! Onwards.

With Thursday morning’s trade deal deadline, imports from nearly 200 countries now face duties between 10% and 50%, and the Yale Budget Lab projected the overall effective tariff rate to be 18.6%—the highest since 1933. Usefull data!

Last week I hosted a "pop up" Zoom session to discuss changes to de minimis. I was joined by an all star roster of operations and e-commerce leaders from ShipHero, Passport, SEKO Logistics, Shipbob and Caspian. You can watch the replay here:

Of course we have a couple new unboxing videos out 📦 📦 📦

First one is some swag from Kase Fulfillment:

The next one is from my friends at Peakspan Capital, a venture capital firm I advise. For those who want to see the dark side of Henry, watch this:

Finally, some swag that Shipstation recently sent leading up to their Innovation Delivered conference that happened yesterday:

Before we get onto the news, a quick PSA:

Our next Matt’s Chats is next Wednesday, August 13 at 12pm EST. I’ll be hosting it live from Vegas where I’ll be attending Superzoo (the largest North American pet retail event - I’m going as a buyer for Henry Hertz LLC, kidding…maybe). I’ll be up early in Vegas for this so I hope to see all of you there!

You can register here (link).

Alex Kent - Director of Strategy and Innovation at Stord

Nima Elyassi-Rad - CEO & Co-Founder of Rivora

Mike McGee - Director of Stores and Operations at Mugsy

Onto some news…

Let’s start with Shopify.

Shares were up ~20% on Wednesday after releasing Q2 results. The quick hits:

✅GMV: $87.8 billion, up 31% YoY
✅Revenue: $2.68 billion up 31% YoY
✅ Gross profit: $1.3 billion, up 25% YoY
✅Operating income: $291 million, up 21% YoY

In short, the company tempered any concerns regarding macro uncertainty and potential tariff implications. Importantly, Shopify's merchant base has remained resilient through early August. In the US, both GMV and revenue growth has accelerated from Q1, and Shopify has not observed any changes in demand trends. Further, the company disclosed that only ~4% of global GMV is related to US imports subject to the de minimis exemption, and more specifically, only ~1% is attributed to China.

Shopify is also in the process of extending its products to additional international markets, with international GMV rising +42% Y/Y. They are firing on all cylinders.

I wrote in Sent Items #149 on Feb 27, 2024 (link), “ I can’t think of any other $100 Billion business that is on the trajectory to $1 Trillion as clearly as Shopify.”

In Sent Items #188 on Sunday, May 11, 2025 (link), I wrote: I’ll double down on that sentiment today.

On Feb 27, 2024 the stock was at $76. On May 11, 2025 the stock was at $110. Today the stock is at $151. The company is now worth $200 Billion. It has exactly doubled since Feb 27 of last year. This company is a beast! Just wait to see what happens when they really start talking about AI 👀

Meanwhile, a week earlier, UPS reported earnings and the stock was down about 15% on the news. Look at the 1-year chart below - UPS stock is down 30% in the last 12 months (fyi, Shopify is up 137%!!)

They reported a decline in Q2 profit and revenue, claiming demand took a hit from new de minimis tariffs on low-value Chinese shipments and mounting risks from Trump’s trade policies. Experts believe the removal of de minimis likely creates a greater-than-expected volume headwind for the company’s international segment, reducing customer shipments from low-priced e-commerce sellers such as Temu and Shein on UPS’s most profitable China-U.S. trade lines.

Finally, some exciting news out of ACI Logistix, a carrier that many have not heard of, but who are quietly building a powerful arsenal. FirstMile, ACI Logistix and Sendle are merging to deliver more for shippers of all sizes (link). FirstMile, ACI Logistix and Sendle today jointly announced the strategic merger of the three entities, to operate under the unified vision and leadership of FAST Group (fantastic name, by the way!)

ACI Logistix is a specialist in small parcel distribution for enterprise clients, with expertise in automated, high-volume sortation. Sendle is a shipping service for small businesses, known for its seamless integrations with e-commerce marketplaces across the US, Canada, and Australia. FirstMile provides shipping solutions for medium and large businesses, and is known for its first-mile pickup capabilities and robust carrier integrations.

FAST Group will serve the full spectrum of e-commerce shipping, supporting businesses from early stage DTC brands to international enterprises as they grow in maturity and complexity. Each brand brings unique capabilities and customer segments that complement one another and will provide greater opportunity for customers and expanded delivery for partners.

Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!

- Matt

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