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  • Sent Items #193: Sunday, June 29, 2025

Sent Items #193: Sunday, June 29, 2025

Author

Matthew Hertz
June 29, 2025

One more day remaining in the first half of the year. We’ll be talking about Christmas in no time!

Excited to be joining my friend Casey Armstrong, CMO at ShipBob for a chat about tariffs, alongside Graham Anderson from Importal. Webinar takes place this coming Tuesday at 10am CST / 11am EST. You can register here (link) or by clicking the graphic below.

Speaking of ShipBob, I was pleased to see that ShipBob is having their 4th annual Fulfilled Conference at the Omni in DFW August 10-12, 2025. I’m attending, and would love for my brand friends to join as well. Event looks awesome. If you are a brand and are interested in attending, I can connect you with Shipbob’s Exec team for a comped ticket.

Next, a couple unboxing videos. First one is a bit of a highlight reel. The second is unboxing of a swag order I received from Yuzu, a really innovative personalized print marketing platform.

Now onto some news….

Great recap from my friend Alex Yancher, CEO of Passport on the latest in tariffs. Remember, the “Liberation Day tariffs” that Trump announced on April 2, 2025 are approaching their 90-day pause on July 9.

TLDR:

  • The 90 day tariff extension is up July 9 —> WH Press Secretary Leavitt told reporters that the July 9 deadline is “not critical.”

  • 1) The tariffs are bringing in a massive amount of revenue - collections in May totaled $22B. That's over 2x higher than May 2024 and about 45% higher than April 2025. The budget plan is expecting rev from tariffs to be north of $200B for the year.

  • 3) Trade from China is down ~30% year over year

  • Just in the last few days, the U.S. and China have reached an agreement, apparently. Trump said late Thursday that a deal with China had been signed “the other day.” China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed Friday that some type of arrangement had been reached but offered few details.

The 90 day tariff extension is almost up (July 9th). | Alex Yancher

The 90 day tariff extension is almost up (July 9th). What is going to happen with US tariffs on key trading partners like China, EU, Vietnam, India and Canada? And what's the latest on the US de minimis for non-China made goods? I break it all down below: Let's start with a couple of macro observations: 0) Timing: Press Secretary Leavitt told reporters that the July 9 deadline is “not critical.” Meaning deadlines will be extended as long as deals are being negotiated in good faith. 1) The tariffs are bringing in a massive amount of revenue - collections in May totaled $22B. That's over 2x higher than May 2024 and about 45% higher than April 2025. The budget plan is expecting rev from tariffs to be north of $200B for the year. 2) Do you recall how Trump Admin calculated the Liberation Tariffs? They looked at the Trade Deficit number and divided by two. Keep that logic in mind bc ironically the deficit has exploded with certain countries. E.g., imports from Vietnam are up 42% y/y. 3) Trade from China is down ~30% y/y 4) De Minimis on non-China made goods - There is a line in the Big Beautiful Bill stipulating the DM will go away July 2027. But will it happen earlier? There are rumors that the announcement of the DM going away will happen as soon as next week, with a month grace period. Key country breakdown: 1) Vietnam - One of the biggest beneficiaries of manufacturers moving out of China is Vietnam, but they may be (partially) be the victims of their own success as the trade deficit has ballooned over 40% y/y. Bloomberg reported that Vietnam is hoping that the final tariff will end up being 20-25% (vs 10% today and 46% on Liberation Day). 2) Thailand - Similar to Vietnam, Thai exports to US grew over 30% y/y. Currently Thailand has the base 10% tariff but Thai officials are modeling an 18% tariff post-negotiation as the settled amount (half of the 36% Liberation Day number). 3) China - China's baseline tariffs are 30% today (10% baseline + 20% fentanyl). Lutnick announced today that a major deal with China was signed. Early indications are that tariffs will remain at 30% and the major update is around rare earths. Not clear if related, but the TitTok ban was also extended. 4) India - The Whitehouse has signaled that a "very big" deal with India is imminent. Liberation Day tariffs were "only" at 26% for India and became 10% during the extension and will likely remain at 10% as India opens up its market to US companies. 5) EU - The Liberation Tariffs in EU were 20% and became 10% during the extension period. EU officials want to bring that down to 0% and have strong leverage pts to get there: a "Digital Tax" on US tech giants. Hard to imagine the tariff number will go to 0%. 6) Canada - CA wasn't mentioned on Liberation Day. Now the jockeying is about steel, aluminum, energy and auto parts. CA still has a 25% tariff on a broad swath of US goods and signaled that won't go away until the US relaxes tariffs on the commodities noted.

www.linkedin.com/posts/alexyancher_the-90-day-tariff-extension-is-almost-up-activity-7344375822914359296-DHhg?

By the way, in May 2025, CBP processed more than 2.8 million entry summaries valued at more than $276 billion, identifying estimated duties of nearly $26.6 billion to be collected by the U.S. government.

CBP completed 67 audits in May that identified $139 million in duties and fees owed to the U.S. government, stemming from imported goods that had been improperly declared in accordance with U.S. trade laws and customs regulations. CBP collected over $29 million in duties and fees.

In May, trade via the ocean environment accounted for 38% of the total import value, followed by air, truck, and rail.

Your Next Online Purchase Could Be Delivered by Delta (link)

Delta is now carrying tens of thousands of packages a day—products such as Figs scrubs and Arezzo shoes—through a new parcel service introduced last year. The service is called Delta Cargo DeliverDirect. Delta was once a major partner to the USPS helping move parcels and letters via air, but in recent years the U.S. Postal Service has begun delivering more letters and parcels using its own trucks, opening up a lot of belly space at Delta.

Delta aims to deliver hundreds of thousands of packages a day in the U.S. in the coming years. UPS delivered an average of 19 million packages a day domestically in 2024. FedEx’s Express and Ground units delivered an average of 15 million parcels a day in its fiscal year ended May 2024. A ways to go it seems…

Have a great week ahead! A reminder, we have already begun planning dates for our Spring 2026 VIP Retreat (targeting March 2026). You can sign up to be notified here (link).

- Matt

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