Sent Items #191: Monday, June 9, 2025

Fresh off a late night flight home from Vegas. Always the worst.

Last week was a busy one. I kicked off the week by speaking at an event at Nashville’s Pinewood Social, hosted by my friend Sam Davidson, the CEO of the Nashville Entrepreneur Center. I then hopped on a plane for San Diego to meet Third Person’s CTO for a day session. The power of in-person collaboration is bar none.

I then spent a couple days with my younger brother celebrating our birthdays in Vegas. We were born on the same day five years apart. One of the highlights was going to The Sphere for a show. We saw Dead and Co last year, and this year we got to see Kenny Chesney. It’s without a doubt the most exceptional venue for a show.

I had a very nice 39th birthday weekend. I’ve got 11 more years to make 50 under 50!

I’m really excited to kick off a new monthly webinar series called MATT’S CHATS where I bring together a leader across a brand, a 3PL, and a logistics tech company, for an informal conversation. Our first event is this coming Wednesday, and you can register here (link). We’ll have Kyle Bertin from Two Boxes, Jennifer Hernandez from BK Beauty, and Scott Chamberlain from Jay Group.

Another unboxing video, this time featuring Trace’s Oats (who of course, found their 3PL via Third Person).

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I’ve become a Costco fan over the last few months. But I’ve never purchased any clothing. Seems like I may be the only one, as Costco “quietly” has a $9 Billion clothing business (link). While only 4% of their total sales, it compares favorably to familiar names:

• Gap ($16B)

• Costco ($9B)

• Lululemon ($8B)

• Ralph Lauren ($6B)

• Levi Strauss & Co ($6B)

• American Eagle Outfitters ($5B)

Watching global container prices these days is more exciting than following the markets. Drewry’s World Container Index increased 41% to $3,527 per 40ft container this week. 

Average price to ship a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles for the week ending June 5, up 57% from the week before to $5,876, and more than double the rate a month ago, according to Drewry’s World Container Index.

Here is a chart showing common trade routes with weekly and annual changes.

Drewry’s WCI has increased 70% in the last 4 weeks, as Trump’s “pause” on import tariffs led to a resumption of US-bound traffic after the initial collapse of transpacific volumes.

Freight rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles have jumped 57% to $5,876 per 40ft container in the past week and 117% since 8 May (4 weeks ago). Spot rates to New York have risen 39% in the past week and 96% in the past 4 weeks.

Freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Genoa have also risen in the past week, by 32% and 38%, respectively.

However, Drewry’s Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken again in the second half, which will cause spot rates to decline again in the second half of this year. The volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on the outcome of legal challenges to Trump’s tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of the US penalties on Chinese ships, which are uncertain.

Lululemon lost nearly 20% of its market value after the athletic-gear maker said tariffs and consumer malaise would hurt its earnings this year (link). About $8 Billion in value!

Lululemon makes products in China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Bangladesh. The company’s profit forecast assumes Trump administration tariffs of 30% on Chinese imports and 10% on goods from other countries where Lululemon sources products. To offset tariffs, the company is negotiating cost savings with suppliers, examining ways to cut shipping costs and planing modest price increases on a small share of products.

My take: last week I spent a few days at hotel gyms. Based on my observations, Lululemon is no longer the dominant athletic wear…. it’s Alo and Vuori.

Have a great week (and register for Wednesday’s Webinar here).

- Matt

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